Ushi No Tane Forum

Hello everyone! I am a returner to the harvest moon series and wanted to register on the forum. I played Harvest moon Back to nature and Harvest Moon DS and have recently started replaying the DS version, as I have never beat it.
And now that the hello is over, over to the Math.

I believe and intend to prove that the Poker mini game is unbelievable rigged. (In our favor, thanks Natsume =)
I shall prove that if you wist to read for about another 4-5 minutes.

Set Up

To set up I played the mini game with different Bets, all of them in reality (1-10), 20 times to get the data.
Each time I recored if I lossed, won but didnt make any money, and if I won and did make money.
I separated these two win senarios to show how much you win AND make money, against how much you stay the same.

I should also share my strategy. If I dont get anything I replace all cards except the highest one. If I do get something I replace all the other unused cards. If I am correct this is the most optimal strategy in terms of raw chance. Feel free to post your own strategy.

Results

Here is the data.
(The numbers on the very left are the bets)



Break Down
I know that not a lot of people actually looked hard at those numbers so let me break it down.

From this test, what you bet does have a small impact on your out come. Though 20 trails isnt enough to be certain, and the only way to be really sure is to look at the source code = /

Though if we assume that this is accuarate then we can draw a few things from it:
You are going to make more gain if you bet 9 instead of 10.
1 and 4 bets are very safe if you are low.
You can start off with one medal and go off of that. (Thats what I did)
Finally (and most interestingly) it is damn near impossible to lose, to the point of this game being rigged.

Let me backup that final one. The totals are this. (Also this is still true even if its totally random and the bets have nothing to do with the out come)

Total Number of losses: 35
Number of stayed same: 105
Number of Gain: 60

This is a 17.5% loss rate. That is a 82.5% win rate.

Graphs and Data:


And that is why the Poker game is Rigged, In our favor.

If you are interested in the exel spread sheet post below. As of this post I havent put it up any where and if there is no interest I wont.

Have a great day =)

That makes sense, thanks!

Muffy Princess Moon wrote:That makes sense, thanks!

Hey no problem.
Now to exploit this to all hell.

Considering how many medals you need to get any useful amount of help out of the sprites or to swap them for a good prize, it was probably necessary that the game developers didn't make it very difficult to win. There are enough things for a DS farmer to worry about without having to spend a lot of time at the casino too.

Rozalynd17 wrote:Considering how many medals you need to get any useful amount of help out of the sprites or to swap them for a good prize, it was probably necessary that the game developers didn't make it very difficult to win. There are enough things for a DS farmer to worry about without having to spend a lot of time at the casino too.

This is true.

I have the Engrish version so no poker for me...
(But that does make sense)

Well, I guess it's a good thing that it's in our favour. I agree, you need loads of medals to actually get any work out of the sprites so that's probably word.

midnighttherabbit wrote:I have the Engrish version so no poker for me...
(But that does make sense)

Yea, I was hesitant to make this because I knew some of the European players might get mad at me.

We wouldn't get mad, just confused! :D

Why isn't there poker in the european version anyway? Isn't it supposed to be the same as the japanese one which does have it, just in a different language?

Muffy Princess Moon wrote:Why isn't there poker in the european version anyway? Isn't it supposed to be the same as the japanese one which does have it, just in a different language?

I bet it's due to some countries laws on gambling games. They must have thought it was easier to make one European version with out it rather then a many that are in form with the individual country's laws.

AlphaZero wrote:

Muffy Princess Moon wrote:Why isn't there poker in the european version anyway? Isn't it supposed to be the same as the japanese one which does have it, just in a different language?

I bet it's due to some countries laws on gambling games. They must have thought it was easier to make one European version with out it rather then a many that are in form with the individual country's laws.

Oh. I got DS Cute for christmas amd my dad was looking at the back of the box where it said 'gambling and alcohol references'. His face!

The more I think about this the more flaws I find in this.
But this is as close as we can get without looking into the source code.

Has it been leaked?