Whats your luck at the casino?

NinjasRockYourFace · Post Posted: Jan 18, 2007 3:34 pm

Meh. I don't really use the Casino that much. And when I did use it, I didn't even get up to 1,000 (on one hand, mind you). I just buy medals instead.

TheOinkers · Post Posted: Jan 18, 2007 4:53 pm

harvestlord_93 wrote:I got some crazy luck the highest I won was 200,000,000! Got the Â« Harvest Goddess Â» hand and the miracle glove at once

200million?! ru kidding me O_O
dannggg you must've won over 100times to get that much...
If I ever won that much I don't think I'll ever need to play the casino again X_x

Maguayan · Post Posted: Jan 18, 2007 10:20 pm

The most I ever won at the casin is 300 medals. Lol

Myah-san · Post Posted: Jan 18, 2007 10:56 pm

There is no such thing as luck. There is only skill. You need to know when to hold them, and when to fold them. And if you aren't sure, it's better to err on the side of caution.

That said, the most meddles I've one in a single try is 512k. Before that it was only 128k. Nearly got 256k a few times, but I got greedy and went too far.

(edit) I don't buy the person who said they got 200,000,000 in a single hand doing hi and lo... In fact, I don't believe it so much I'm going to start doing the math to calculate the odds... Post again once I have them figured out.

(edit 2) Major math warning. Maaaaajoooooor math warning. If you don't want your brain to explode, please stop now. ^_^ I want to be thorough that way if anyone wants to test this for themselves, they can. Or if someone sees a flaw in my logic, they can see my work and point it out precisely where so I can rework the numbers.

First things first is to work out how many rounds of hi-lo it would take to get 200,000,000 million medals. The highest winning (if I remember right) from black jack is 500 medals. Either 500 or 1000 I don't remember which, but it matters little as I'll explain later on. We'll go with 500 to start.

1.Start with 500. After winning 1 round, 500 becomes 1000
2. 1000 doubles to 2000
3. 2000 doubles to 4000
4. 4000 to 8000
5. 8000 to 16000
6. 16000 to 32000
7. 32000 to 64000
8. 128000
9. 256000
10. 512000
11. 1024000
12. 2048000
13. 4096000
14. 8192000
15. 16384000
16. 32768000
17. 65536000
18. 131072000
19. 262144000

It would take 19 consecutive if you started with 500 medals to get over 200,000,000. That'd be 20 if you started with 250 medals, 21 if you started with 100-125ish, 22 if you had 50, etc etc.

So it'd take between 19-22 consecutive wins on average to get 200,000,000 medals or more. Important information.

Now we need to find out what the chance of winning each round is. There are 13 cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, A). That means the odds for each card are out of 13. If you go for the odds that are best for each card you get the following...

2 12/13 chance of winning if high (92.30%)
3 11/13 chance of winning if high (84.61%)
4 10/13 chance of winning if high (76.92%)
5 9/13 chance of winning if high (69.23%)
6 8/13 chance of winning if high (61.53%)
7 7/13 chance of winning if high (53.84%)
8 6/13 chance of winning either way (46.15%)
9 7/13 chance of winning if low (53.84%)
10 8/13 chance of winning if low (61.53%)
J 9/13 chance of winning if low (69.23%)
Q 10/13 chance of winning if low (76.92%)
K 11/13 chance of winning if low (84.61%)
A 12/13 chance of winning if low (92.30%)

Which is an average percent to win per hand of 71% (Average of total percentage ((923.01) divided by the number of total cards ((13))

71% chance to win each hand. 71% as a fraction is .71 which is much easier to deal with. If your average odds are you'll win 71% of your hands, then you have a 50.41% chance of winning 2 hands in a row (.71 * .71) Got that basic math down? Good ^_^ Now time to wrap this all up.

We know there is a 71% chance of winning each hand at random if you go by the best odds, the number will be lower if you go against odds. We also know it takes a MINIMUM of 19 consecutive wins to get over 200,000,000 million medals if you won 500 medals in blackjack to start. That means the odds of winning that many in a row are .14%

Let's do a run down with how many you could have started with.

500 medals would need 19 wins = .14%
250 medals would need 20 wins = .10%
100 medals would need 21 wins = .07%
50 medals would need 22 wins = .05%

While not as completely unreasonable as I first thought, the odds of getting over 200,000,000 million in a consecutive run of high and low would be just over 1 out of every 1000 tries IF you kept going every time you won. So in general people who stop early because they've already hit big enough would see the odds as even lower.

In comparison, my 512k medals was about a 3.25% (or close to 1 out of 33 shot) at 500. But I probably actually got it from 100-250 medal starting. Don't remember which. So something close to a 1/50 to 1/75 chance.

Well kids, this was Uncle Myah's really long and boring math hour. ^_^ And you thought math had no practical usage outside of school........ <_< « Harvest Goddess » I was bored.

(edit 3) I forgot my conclusion... *clears throat* Either you're a big fat lying poo-head, you used some sort of cheating device to alter the chances of a card to come up (which is odd since if you were going to cheat, it'd be easier to just manually add the medals or money directly to your account), or you are incredibly lucky. In which case, you've blown all your possible winning the lottery luck on a game. Muwhahaha karma baby~

That said, the boy version of the game has worse odds then the girl version of the game since in the girl version there isn't a "same card" option. If the same card comes up, you draw a new card with no penalty, thus the odds are far better that you'd successfully make it. Maybe I should do up odds for the girl version sometime just to show they got another unfair advantage ^_^

Marty · Post Posted: Jan 19, 2007 2:12 am

About 50 mil. Then I wanted to double it....I regret that decision
Most Ive actually left with was 500k

(At above post) You do realise theirs a smaller percentage than that of people understanding what you wrote lol

Pounce · Post Posted: Jan 19, 2007 5:13 am

Gah... I actually got out a calculator and started doing the same thing last night. I got tired and decided to go to bed part of the way into it but yeah XD

happybunny · Post Posted: Jan 19, 2007 7:35 am

I go there too much my sisters think I have a gambing problem but I can stop!...As soon as I get what ever item I am after.

Myah-san · Post Posted: Jan 19, 2007 8:09 am

Pounce wrote:Gah... I actually got out a calculator and started doing the same thing last night. I got tired and decided to go to bed part of the way into it but yeah XD

Yeah I was tired, but I couldn't sleep <_< Sooo I did all the work for you. Enjoy?

iyami · Post Posted: Jan 19, 2007 2:20 pm

Myah-san wrote:
Pounce wrote:Gah... I actually got out a calculator and started doing the same thing last night. I got tired and decided to go to bed part of the way into it but yeah XD
Yeah I was tired, but I couldn't sleep <_< Sooo I did all the work for you. Enjoy?

yes, despite the fact that my brain just exploded.

i tried doing the same thing once, due to my loathing of math it failed miserably. =D

Myah-san · Post Posted: Jan 19, 2007 8:59 pm

I hate math, but sadly I'm quite good at it... Thus I'll use the hated math to accomplish tasks in long round about ways.

Burberry25 · Post Posted: Jan 20, 2007 6:28 am

i won too many to count. made me rich =)

Thejellofarmer · Post Posted: Jan 20, 2007 9:02 am

Myah-san wrote:
Now we need to find out what the chance of winning each round is. There are 13 cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, A). That means the odds for each card are out of 13. If you go for the odds that are best for each card you get the following...

2 12/13 chance of winning if high (92.30%)
3 11/13 chance of winning if high (84.61%)
4 10/13 chance of winning if high (76.92%)
5 9/13 chance of winning if high (69.23%)
6 8/13 chance of winning if high (61.53%)
7 7/13 chance of winning if high (53.84%)
8 6/13 chance of winning either way (46.15%)
9 7/13 chance of winning if low (53.84%)
10 8/13 chance of winning if low (61.53%)
J 9/13 chance of winning if low (69.23%)
Q 10/13 chance of winning if low (76.92%)
K 11/13 chance of winning if low (84.61%)
A 12/13 chance of winning if low (92.30%)

Whats about the Same function Myah?

I did something like that once but I probably got it wrong;

2- 8% chance of being same , 92% chance of being high
3- 8% chance of being low, 8% chance of being same, 84% chance of being higher
4- 16% chance of being low, 8% chance of being same, 76% chance of being high
5- 23% chance of low, 8% chance of being same. 69% chance of being high
6- 31% chance of low, 8% chance of being same, 61% chance of being high
7 38% chance of low, 8% chance of being high, 54% chance of being high
8- 54% chance of low, 8% chance of same, 46% chance of high
9- 61% chance of low, 8% chance of same, 31% chance of high
10- 69% chance of low, 8% chance of same, 23% chance of high
Jack- 76% chance of low, 8% chance of same, 16% chance of high
Queen- 84% chance of low, 8% chance of same, 8% chance of high
King- 84% chance of low, 8% chance of same, 8% chance of high
Ace- 92%chance of low, 8% chance of same, 0% chance of high

But I didn't go into decimals like you though.

Muu~ · Post Posted: Jan 20, 2007 9:08 am

I'm not that good at casino. I just get enough to buy the Teleport Neclace, Truth Bangle, and Love Bangle. The most I've ever won at one time is... about 20,000

silverserenity · Post Posted: Jan 20, 2007 12:54 pm

i can't get more than 2k a hand but once i won like 20k then the game froze when i left the room

Myah-san · Post Posted: Jan 20, 2007 2:40 pm

Thejellofarmer wrote:
Myah-san wrote:
Now we need to find out what the chance of winning each round is. There are 13 cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, A). That means the odds for each card are out of 13. If you go for the odds that are best for each card you get the following...

2 12/13 chance of winning if high (92.30%)
3 11/13 chance of winning if high (84.61%)
4 10/13 chance of winning if high (76.92%)
5 9/13 chance of winning if high (69.23%)
6 8/13 chance of winning if high (61.53%)
7 7/13 chance of winning if high (53.84%)
8 6/13 chance of winning either way (46.15%)
9 7/13 chance of winning if low (53.84%)
10 8/13 chance of winning if low (61.53%)
J 9/13 chance of winning if low (69.23%)
Q 10/13 chance of winning if low (76.92%)
K 11/13 chance of winning if low (84.61%)
A 12/13 chance of winning if low (92.30%)
Whats about the Same function Myah?

I did something like that once but I probably got it wrong;

As I said, I used a method going with the best odds, "same" is always a 1/13 chance (something like 7.7% chance of happening). If you ever go for the "same" option when playing high and low... well... you'd have to either be very luck and know what's going to be the card that comes up... or you're someone that likes to live dangerously. Since same will always give you the worst odds, the equation I used would assume that no one would use it because it would be intentionally lowering their own odds of winning.